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Strategic Updates

Peter Cavelti’s essays have been printed and quoted in papers, magazines and newsletters internationally, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, The Financial Times, the Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Money, Personal Finance and World Link. Peter releases new commentary as inspired by current events and the desire to share information with an independent, unbiased voice.

The Ukraine Invasion: Implications

Eleven days ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. While countless uncertainties remain, we draw some early conclusions. In addition to updating on the new geopolitical realities, we also focus on economic consequences and explain the implications for investors.

What Next?

The disregard our politicians and the media have for us citizens is stunning. We look at the most recent examples of narrative manipulation and the growing use of government emergency powers, and draw our conclusions. In our segment on investment strategy, we stress the need to be prepared for a variety of outcomes and to be nimble with portfolio adjustments.

The Central Bank Dilemma

Not too long ago, when the Covid threat first emerged, economists the world over entertained us with various forecasts of how exactly the recession of 2020 would play out. Some were quite determined that it would be in a U-shape, while others suggested a W-shaped, L-shaped or K-shaped pattern. Some boldly predicted that the downturn would last a while; the opposite camp thought it would be short-lived.

Of Generals and Central Bankers

How will America’s botched Afghanistan exit impact the geopolitical balance? What safe haven investments are there left? We’re addressing two questions that seem to be on everyone’s mind and explain why caution is advised.

Gray Rhinos

“Gray Rhinos” (clearly visible, but nevertheless ignored threats) are everywhere. We explore the concept and investigate the root causes of today’s disfunction. We also look at whether the past half-century of failed leadership warrants a Great Reset. Finally, we comment on the dilemma in which central banks and governments find themselves and explain why the spike in inflation may not be temporary.

An Absence of Trust

On the surface that appears to be a good thing. As experts of almost any stripe and colour expose themselves as no more than a source of one specific opinion, it becomes imperative that we strip ourselves of our confirmation bias, study opposing viewpoints, and take responsibility.

Of Fear and Fatigue

What does a prolonged climate of fear and the resulting fatigue do to individuals, society, the financial markets, the shaping of our future and future generations? And what kind of world do we want to create?