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Dangerous complacency

Markets are so enamored by the prospect of continued and escalating stimulus that they forget the desperate economic circumstances that make bailouts, stability funds and other support operations necessary.

The Hostile World
Part 2

Declining birthrates in many nations will have a devastating effect on living standards and government finances, especially in the nations and regions with the most unhealthy demographic profiles: Japan, Russia and most of Europe. The generational implications are equally alarming, as fewer young people will be responsible for supporting a larger number of seniors.

The Hostile World,
Part 1

We explore why the growing U.S. military engagement in the Middle East will guarantee massive instability for many years to come, sporadically dislocating financial markets, impairing economic growth and curtailing our civil liberties.

Intelligence Failures

How could 9/11 have been allowed to happen? And how could the intelligence establishment have told the White House that Saddam had significant stores of weapons of mass destruction? Like Britain before it, the U.S. keeps responding to the effects of its own actions: place ogres like Saddam in power, show them how to oppress, supply them with weapons, and when you can’t control them, feign surprise and use faulty intelligence to justify war.

America’s New Scapegoat

During the Clinton years, as U.S. technological advances led to an economic miracle, huge numbers of American jobs were exported to China; manufacturing was thought to be a thing of the past. Meanwhile, U.S. corporations invested billions in China that could have been invested domestically. The result: China is now being accused of doing well at the expense of the United States. How convenient.

Gold and Gold Stocks

After spending two decades in a protracted downtrend, it’s time to reconsider gold. We’re looking at gold’s technical and fundamental positions and explain how we’ve positioned ourselves to take advantage.

The United Nations

We revisit the U.N. Charter and review what happened to an institutional concept that once inspired. We examine the U.S. Security Council’s agenda of the past 25 years and conclude that if the world experiences occasional periods of stability, it’s not because the idealism enshrined in the UN’s guiding principles got us there, but because an impasse between the permanent Security Council members or mutual fear between them held everyone in check. We offer some remedies that might improve the situation.

Esthetics Over Ethics

The duplicity of the anti-American lobby is as disturbing as America’s habit to serve up lies and hoist the banner of morality when its intention is to coerce and oppress. What’s really disturbing is that it works. Propaganda is the mainstay of political success in America. And, as recent evidence shows, in the world.

The Iraq War

The concept of “pre-emptive strike” marks the beginning of an openly Imperialistic America. Depending on how the doctrine is applied, it may also mark then end of moral leadership and the dawn of an era in which corporate interests dominate the militarily and economically most powerful nation. 20th century type democracy may be on its way out; oligarchy might be its logical successor. In this four-part essay, we explore the set-up to the Iraq War, the new U.S. doctrines that resulted from the confrontation, and how they will change our lives.

Government and Big Business

Recent surveys suggest that the public’s faith in corporations is even lower than that in government. We discuss why it’s not capitalism that is the problem, but a failure of governance, both within corporate constructs and the authorities. We also identify other culprits: merger mania and the wholesale destruction of small business, and lobbyism, which is rapidly leading to corporate ownership of the political class.

Observations on Europe

Why is it that Europe keeps marginalizing itself? We look at the central reasons, including the continent’s persistent lack of vision, which is complicated by cultural complexity and a massive bureaucracy.

America the Moralizer

America’s habit of moralizing has become a constant irritant to the rest of the world. How far more instructive it would be to foreigners if they heard about America’s failings and the nation’s ability to overcome them: instead of criticizing Tiananmen Square, why not explain domestic crimes, such as Kent State or McCarthyism and how they shocked Americans into positive change?

9/11/2001

A transcript of a speech given to an international audience in Aspen, Colorado—not long after one of America’s most traumatic days.

A New War

We examine the War on Terrorism in all its implications: political, cultural and how it will affect our personal liberties. Is the U.S. doomed? We doubt it, but wonder what kind of America will emerge from the current engagement.

They’re at it again, but this time with far greater coordination than ever before. Governments around the world are determined to stamp out the last shreds of privacy. Moreover, they’re increasingly acting in concert, forging treaties and sharing information. Some initiatives target the few remaining ways of holding cash, others the internet. Let’s hope they fail.

Japan’s Loss, China’s Gain

China spends with the intent to transform itself; Japan spends so it can resist change. A shift in existing trans-Pacific ties is ahead and how things play out is largely up to corporate America.
They’re at it again, but this time with far greater coordination than ever before. Governments around the world are determined to stamp out the last shreds of privacy. Moreover, they’re increasingly acting in concert, forging treaties and sharing information. Some initiatives target the few remaining ways of holding cash, others the internet. Let’s hope they fail.

Where are Corporate Ethics?

What is truth and what constitutes a lie changes from culture to culture. Languages like Russian, Japanese and Chinese, dozens of words exist for what we simply call “a lie”. Some lies are perfectly tolerated, others are justifiable under certain circumstances, while yet others breach morality. Today, we have another culture that provides a study material: the corporate one. As it turns out, lying as we once understood it is no longer offensive.

All About Bhutan

A travelogue focusing on the remote and pristine Himalayan Kingdom. Is its economic and political system really arranged around the idea of a Gross Happiness Product, as the New York Times recently reported? The situation is considerably more complex, reports Peter Cavelti after having visited both the country’s capital and trekking through its largely unexplored North East.

Fasten Your Seatbelts

Geopolitical, social, technological and economic realities are not only deeply intertwined, but also capable of affecting each other. Still, most analysts of current events focus only on one particular area. In this issue, we examine the profound changes all around us.

Ignorance and Apathy

Increasingly, politicians, corporate leaders and academia manufacture narratives and sideline competing views. What surprises is the willingness of the populace to accept even the most obvious misrepresentations, provided they are repeated by a compliant media complex. We explore the social and financial consequences.

Questions You Asked

An unusual number of reader questions prompt us to go deeper on four key topics: government debt defaults, the ongoing banking crisis, our portfolio composition, and Central Bank Digital Currencies.

What Debt Ceiling?

The debt-ceiling scare and the banking crisis have receded into the background, but the underlying problems remain unaddressed. We take a closer look at indebtedness globally and weigh the risk of a recession. And finally, we look at investments appropriate for today’s challenging environment.

Crumbling Confidence

Americans are not alone in losing trust in their government, and for good reason. But, as we explain, trouble in the United States will seriously undermine global stability. The economic, social and geo-political implications are enormous.

The Banks, Again

The collapse of three regional U.S. banks and giant Credit Suisse raises questions. Are financial markets and the economy in for a 2008-like swoon? As Peter Cavelti explains, challenges abound, but central bank policies will determine much of the outcome.

Webcast Interview: Investing Amidst Chaos

‘Market Sniper’ host Francis Hunt interviews Peter Cavelti: duration 56 minutes. The discussion focuses on the challenges of preserving capital in a rapidly changing economic, social and geopolitical environment. Peter explores the importance of stock selection and the virtues of gold.

The New Concensus

Gold is up, the dollar down, and Wall Street has a whole new consensus—as always offered with enormous confidence. We explain why some of the assumptions are wrong. Our formula for financial success: be aware of the challenges at hand, consider various possible outcomes and, as they become more defined, react and adjust.

The Real Threats

Centralization is closing in on every front, threatening to upend the geopolitical balance, the social order, and the way we’ve lived and related for the past many decades. We explain how military, trade and corporate alliances undermine our wellbeing.

On Cynicism

How not to be cynical when corruption stares you in the face? Peter dives into the root causes of our many systemic problems, reviews the geo-political and social landscape and offers his latest investment recommendations.

Deviations from the Norm – II

We comment on out-of-control monetary and fiscal policies, the most challenging macro outlook in decades, and the fact that key asset classes remain overvalued. We also revisit our portfolio strategy, which is designed to navigate a constantly changing environment.