Peter C. Cavelti

Events, Trends and Catalysts

For now, the prevailing narrative persists: motivated by the belief that central banks won’t allow a meaningful correction in equities and that there are few attractive places for money outside the stock market, investors feel that broad overvaluation is justified.

The Elusive Correction

How risky is the broad stock market? It depends how you look at it, but there is plenty to worry about. To begin with, valuations are high by any yardstick; in the U.S. for example, the S&P500 cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio has only been higher once—in the late 1990s.

Deviations from the Norm

We examine several recent events that threaten to overthrow the social, economic and political order. As a general rule, when the unknowns starts to crowd out the predictable, it’s best to be cautious.

On America

So far, financial markets have welcomed Donald Trump’s victory with exuberance, focusing primarily on his promise of lower taxes and less regulation.

The Delta Factor

The recent suspension of all Delta Air Lines flights highlights the drastic need to overhaul our badly impaired infrastructure. The eventual cost of overhaul will be high, and other areas of governance, such as health care, education and social welfare, demand equal attention.

On Arrogance

We comment on the arrogance of the political class, the misguided and desperate actions of central bankers attempting to fix a broken system, Brexit and the future of Europe, and our conviction that investors have no choice but to resort to an approach of extreme pragmatism and flexibility.

Age of Discontent

The majority of people in the industrialized world feel disenfranchised. Their life appears to be in the hands of an unaccountable elite, where corporate, political and academic leaders collude.