Peter C. Cavelti

On the surface that appears to be a good thing. As experts of almost any stripe and colour expose themselves as no more than a source of one specific opinion, it becomes imperative that we strip ourselves of our confirmation bias, study opposing viewpoints, and take responsibility.

What does a prolonged climate of fear and the resulting fatigue do to individuals, society, the financial markets, the shaping of our future and future generations? And what kind of world do we want to create?

We elaborate on the four factors that will dominate the ramp-up to the U.S. presidential election: power politics, the election aftermath, central bank posturing, and Covid-19 dynamics.

I’m deviating from my usual quarterly format, primarily because events warrant an update. Since I last wrote just eight weeks ago, we’ve gone through a number of Covid-19 induced changes. The most visible fallout is on the economic front, where GDP contraction and employment loss remind of the Great Depression.

Covid-19 has made the world into a new place. Not just “out there”, but in our homes and workplaces. From here on, we’ll be doing many things differently, maybe for a few months and maybe for decades to come. It’s important to understand how we got here.

In this issue, we review a year in which markets—against all expectations—continued to advance, against an exceptionally challenging background. We also look ahead at 2020 and beyond, considering key political, economic and social issues, both at home and globally.