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Peter C. Cavelti

The Unintended Consequences of Sanctions

Six weeks into the Ukraine war, we examine the West’s sanctions against Russia and identify a long list of unintended consequences, many of which will aggravate worldwide shortages and price pressures. We also explain why the sanctions will accelerate the transition from an Ameri-centric order to a multi-polar world.

The Ukraine Invasion: Implications

Eleven days ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. While countless uncertainties remain, we draw some early conclusions. In addition to updating on the new geopolitical realities, we also focus on economic consequences and explain the implications for investors.

What Next?

The disregard our politicians and the media have for us citizens is stunning. We look at the most recent examples of narrative manipulation and the growing use of government emergency powers, and draw our conclusions. In our segment on investment strategy, we stress the need to be prepared for a variety of outcomes and to be nimble with portfolio adjustments.

The Central Bank Dilemma

Not too long ago, when the Covid threat first emerged, economists the world over entertained us with various forecasts of how exactly the recession of 2020 would play out. Some were quite determined that it would be in a U-shape, while others suggested a W-shaped, L-shaped or K-shaped pattern. Some boldly predicted that the downturn would last a while; the opposite camp thought it would be short-lived.

Of Generals and Central Bankers

How will America’s botched Afghanistan exit impact the geopolitical balance? What safe haven investments are there left? We’re addressing two questions that seem to be on everyone’s mind and explain why caution is advised.

Gray Rhinos

“Gray Rhinos” (clearly visible, but nevertheless ignored threats) are everywhere. We explore the concept and investigate the root causes of today’s disfunction. We also look at whether the past half-century of failed leadership warrants a Great Reset. Finally, we comment on the dilemma in which central banks and governments find themselves and explain why the spike in inflation may not be temporary.